Bajaj Housing Share Audit Report

 **AUDIT TARGET:** BAJAJHFL (Bajaj Housing Finance Ltd)

**LIVE PRICE:** ₹95.10 (As of 26 Dec 2025, 03:58 PM IST)

**SAGE VERDICT:** **⚠️ ACCUMULATE ON DIP / CAUTIONARY HOLD**

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### 1. The Executive Summary

I have audited **Bajaj Housing Finance**. The stock is currently in a "Technical Winter," trading at ₹95.10, significantly **below its 200-Day Moving Average (₹114.88)**. While the business fundamentals remain the "Gold Standard" of the housing finance sector, the price is suffering from a massive **supply overhang**. The promoter, Bajaj Finance, is currently offloading a 2% stake (approx. 16.66 Cr shares) to meet SEBI's Minimum Public Shareholding (MPS) norms—a process that will continue until February 2026. 

We are seeing a classic "Good Company, Bad Technicals" scenario.

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### 2. The "Four Pillars" Analysis

#### **1. Cash & Forensics (Lender's Edition)**

I have verified the data for H1 FY26. 

*   **Asset Quality:** GNPA at **0.26%** and NNPA at **0.12%**. This is industry-leading.

*   **Provision Coverage (PCR):** 55.6%.

*   **Forensic Flag:** Screener notes potential capitalization of interest costs. However, with a **Capital Adequacy of 26.12%**, the balance sheet is fortified.

*   **Status:** **Clean**. Unlike "Paper Tiger" lenders that hide bad loans, BHFL’s credit costs remain ultra-low at nearly negligible levels compared to peers.

#### **2. The Moat (Business Quality)**

*   **The Bajaj Pedigree:** Access to the lowest cost of funds (AAA Rated) in the private sector.

*   **Pricing Power:** While the prime housing market is competitive, BHFL’s **Lease Rental Discounting (LRD)** and **Developer Finance** (growing at 59%) segments provide higher-yield cushions.

*   **Moat Verdict:** **Wide**. The ability to borrow cheap and lend to "prime" salaried customers is a flywheel peers like LIC Housing cannot easily replicate with the same efficiency.

#### **3. Growth & Valuation**

*   **Growth Reality:** AUM grew **24% YoY** to ₹1,26,749 Cr. PAT grew **19%**.

*   **Valuation Truth:** 

    *   **Reported P/E:** 33.6x.

    *   **P/B Ratio:** 3.73x.

    *   **Peer Test:** While PNB Housing and LIC Housing trade at 10-15x P/E, BHFL commands a premium for its **zero-stain asset quality**. However, at 33x, the "easy money" from the IPO listing is fully digested. It is now a time-correction play.

#### **4. Technical & Volume Setup**

*   **Volume Analysis:** Recent price action shows "Distribution." The stock hit an all-time high of ₹188+ post-listing and is now hovering near its **52-week low of ₹92.10**.

*   **The Trap:** Buying now faces the headwind of the **2% Promoter Stake Sale** through Feb 2026. 

*   **Support:** ₹92.00 (Major Psychological/52W Low) | **Resistance:** ₹114.90 (200 DMA).

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### 3. The Future Story (Management Guidance)

*   **Guidance:** Management has guided for **21-23% AUM growth** for FY26.

*   **Reality Check:** Past 3-year AUM CAGR was ~30%. The slight moderation to 22% reflects the "High Base Effect" and a cautious stance on "Near Prime" customers.

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### 4. THE SAGE'S SCORECARD

| Parameter | Grade | Notes |

| :--- | :--- | :--- |

| **Cash Quality** | **Clean** | GNPA < 0.3% is legendary; Credit costs minimal. |

| **Moat Width** | **Wide** | Bajaj Brand + AAA borrowing cost advantage. |

| **Sector Health** | **Neutral** | Slowing real estate demand; Intense NIM competition. |

| **Valuation** | **Fair/Expensive** | High P/E (33x) vs HFC peers (12x). |

| **Momentum** | **Weak** | Trading below 200 DMA; Promoter selling pressure. |

| **Conviction** | **Medium** | Long-term compounder, short-term laggard. |

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### 5. Actionable Advice

*   **Buy Zone:** ₹88 - ₹93 (Wait for the 52-week low to be tested or the promoter sale to conclude).

*   **Target:** ₹125 (18-month horizon based on 20% earnings compounding).

*   **Stop Loss Protocol:**

    *   **Fundamental Stop (Thesis Break):** Immediate **EXIT** if **Gross NPA (GNPA) crosses 0.80%** or if **Net Interest Margins (NIM) compress below 2.8%**. The premium valuation exists *only* because of "Zero-Defect" lending. If they become "just another lender," the P/E will de-rate to 15x.

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**Disclaimer:** I am an AI forensic assistant using live search data. This is educational analysis, not financial advice. Consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.